Hey Reader,

I’ve been speaking to groups of entrepreneurs and business owners recently about the silver tsunami and what it means for the companies they’re building. One number gets your attention: $84 trillion. That's the projection of wealth passing from U.S. businesses through 2045.

Today, I want to focus on those businesses changing hands. Here are four numbers that explain the business side of that story, and why it matters whichever chair you sit in.

2.9 million. That's how many U.S. employer businesses are owned by people 55 and older, per Project Equity's research. Not side hustles, real companies with employees: 32 million jobs and $6.5 trillion in annual revenue riding on them.

6 million by 2035. That’s roughly how many U.S. small and midsize businesses McKinsey estimates will face ownership transitions as owners retire. More than one million are viable candidates for sale, with a combined enterprise value of up to $5 trillion. That’s a lot of businesses whose next chapter is still unwritten.

Fewer than 1 in 3. The share of owners with a documented exit plan, per the Exit Planning Institute. JPMorgan Chase's survey work says roughly 40 percent of small business owners plan to retire within the decade, and about 70 percent are in early-stage planning or none at all.

70 to 80 percent. The share of businesses listed for sale that never complete a transaction, per business brokerage industry data. The market already rejects most of what's offered, before the wave even peaks.

Put the four together and here's the sentence that should stop you cold: a tidal wave of companies is heading for the exit, mostly unprepared, into a market that already turns most sellers away.

Some of these businesses will transfer beautifully and fund retirements and legacies. Millions of others, good, profitable businesses that took a lifetime to build, will simply close. Project Equity estimates one in six American employees works at a boomer-owned business. This isn't just a founders' story. It's a story about the businesses people depend on.

I've spent my career on both sides of this table. Let me talk to both people reading this.

WORTH Sharing

Quote of the Week

The best time to prepare for a handoff is years before anyone reaches for the keys.

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This week’s newsletter is also available to listen to.

It’s this week’s newsletter with a little more context, made for your next walk, commute, or break from the screen.

This week: What the coming wave of business exits means for the company you own, and the one you might buy.

FROM MY DESK

If You’re the Seller Someday

If you’re planning to sell someday, think about the other owners who may be selling at the same time. A buyer with several profitable companies to choose from is going to look for a reason to pick yours. Being average gives them no reason.

But flip it: scarcity always earns a premium, and in this market, the scarce asset is readiness. A business that’s transferable, documented, and durable will stand out against millions of rushed, improvised listings the way a lit house stands out on a dark street. The same wave that buries average sellers is a once-in-a-generation stage for prepared ones.

The move: start the clock yourself, years early, while it’s cheap. Pick your honest horizon, five years, ten, never. And know that “never” needs the same preparation as “five,” because the wave reshapes your industry either way: competitors’ exits change your market, consolidators call your key people, and readiness is leverage in every one of those conversations even if you never sell.

If You’re the Builder

Same four numbers, other chair: you may be looking at the best entry window of your lifetime. Millions of proven, cash-flowing, essential businesses will need worthy hands, many owned by people whose kids don't want them and whose employees can't finance them.

There's already a quiet movement of younger buyers choosing essential businesses, the trades, services, distribution, precisely because they're durable in ways no app is. While everyone chases what's new, the wealth this decade may go to people who buy what's proven.

But hear me: buying a business is a full-contact sport, and the deal you walk away from matters more than the one you close. If the business only runs because the retiring owner runs it, you're not buying a company; you're buying their job with debt on top. The transferability a seller should build is exactly what you should demand.

And what almost nobody says: the best transfers aren't transactions; they're apprenticeships with a closing date. Sellers of good businesses don't just take the highest number. They choose the safest hands. Show up as the person who'll honor a life's work, and you'll beat buyers with more money.

NEXT STEPS

Action is the Advantage

I do not write this newsletter to motivate you. I write it to move you.

So here is what I want you to do this week:

✓ Owners: write down your honest horizon, the year you want the option to step away. Subtract three years. That's when readiness work must start. If the math says “already,” it means this quarter.

✓ Owners: draft the one-page answer to “What happens to this company if I'm gone in five years?” Fewer than one in three of your peers can write that page. Be the one in three.

✓ Builders: write your acquisition thesis in three lines: the industry you understand, the size you could operate, why you'd be the safest hands. A thesis starts conversations. Vague interest buys nothing.

✓ Reply and tell me which chair you're in, seller-someday or builder, and your horizon. I read every reply, and I suspect this list splits more evenly than you'd guess.

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